Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 19, 2026, 7:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 58.1%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJan 18, 26, 9:50 PM UTCDec 31, 40, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Update 2026-01-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market resolves YES if ASI (Artificial Superintelligence) is developed greater than 5 years after AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is developed.
