Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNolan (2026) 97.6%
Forecasters
29
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJul 23, 26, 7:54 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 8:51 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Grok Imagine’s full-length Odyssey film be released this year?
KalshiWill Grok Imagine’s full-length Odyssey film be released this year? [Kalshi]
Manifold MarketsWill Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Christopher Nolan have a new film release in 2027 or 2028?
Manifold MarketsTime's Person of the Year for 2026
KalshiWhich companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on which adaptation of Homer's The Odyssey is preferred by the Manifold community, subject to the following rules:
- Grok's Release Condition: Elon Musk pledged that the named outcome will produce a "full-length movie" of The Odyssey by the end of 2026.
- If a feature-length (at least 40 minutes long) adaptation of The Odyssey generated by the named outcome is not made publicly viewable on X or another platform by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM PT, this market will automatically resolve to Nolan (2026).
- Community Preference Poll: If the the named outcome adaptation is successfully released by the deadline, the creator will pin a poll in the comments of this market (or link to a dedicated Manifold poll) asking: "Which version of The Odyssey do you prefer: Christopher Nolan's (2026) or the named outcome's?"
- Voting & Final Resolution: The poll will run for 7 days.
Open markets
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Manifold prefer Nolan’s or Grok’s Odyssey??
- Manifold Markets prices Nolan (2026) at 98% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Manifold prefer Nolan’s or Grok’s Odyssey? resolve?
- Will Manifold prefer Nolan’s or Grok’s Odyssey? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will Manifold prefer Nolan’s or Grok’s Odyssey? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria