Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (95.9%)
Resolved: Oct 12, 2026, 2:10 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 13, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Trends
Won
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Consumer Price Index release for June 2026 reports that headline CPI-U rose 0.3% or more month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis.
- Use the all-items Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), BLS series CUSR0000SA0, and the seasonally adjusted percent change from May 2026 to June 2026 in the first BLS June 2026 CPI release.
- Resolve NO if that seasonally adjusted month-over-month change is 0.2% or lower.
- Do not use core CPI, year-over-year CPI, PCE, PPI, not-seasonally-adjusted monthly change, real earnings, or later annual revisions unless BLS corrects the initial June 2026 release before resolution.
- If the June 2026 CPI release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release of the June 2026 figure unless there is no BLS June 2026 CPI release by July 21, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"core_cpi_u_april_2026_mom_sa": 0.4, "headline_cpi_u_april_2026_mom_sa": 0.6, "headline_cpi_u_april_2026_yoy": 3.8, "note": "May 2026 CPI is scheduled for 2026-06-10 and was not yet released at this market's creation time.", "release": "Consumer Price Index, April 2026"}, "metric": "Seasonally adjusted all-items CPI-U percent change from May 2026 to June 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["May 2026 CPI markets are prior-reference-month markets, not June 2026 duplicates.", "Core CPI, year-over-year CPI, PCE inflation, PPI, and real-earnings markets are not duplicates.", "Calendar-year inflation markets are not duplicates of a single-month headline CPI-U MoM threshold."], "release_schedule": "BLS CPI schedule lists June 2026 CPI for 2026-07-14 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS Consumer Price Index release for June 2026", "series": "CUSR0000SA0", "source_fetch_caveat": "Official BLS schedule pages were verified via web/search tooling before creation; BLS pages can return HTTP 403 or time out from raw Python requests on this host.", "threshold": "+0.3% month-over-month or higher"}.
- Sources / resolver surfaces: - BLS CPI release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm - BLS July 2026 schedule list: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/07_sched_list.htm - BLS current CPI release page: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm - BLS CPI home: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/