Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (97.4%)
Resolved: Oct 12, 2026, 2:18 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 23, 2026, 8:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Yes2.6%
No97.4%
Won
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for July 2026 reports that headline PCE inflation was 0.3% or higher month-over-month.
- Use the all-items/headline PCE price index in the first BEA Personal Income and Outlays release covering July 2026, and use the percent change from the preceding month.
- Resolve NO if the initial July 2026 headline PCE price-index month-over-month change is 0.2% or lower, zero, or negative.
- Use BEA's reported rounded one-decimal percent change.
- Do not use core PCE excluding food and energy, current-dollar PCE spending, real PCE, CPI, PPI, annualized rates, year-over-year rates, personal income, disposable personal income, personal outlays, saving rate, or later revisions unless BEA corrects the initial July 2026 release before resolution.
- If the July 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release is delayed, wait for the first BEA release containing the July 2026 headline PCE price-index month-over-month percent change unless there is no such release by September 3, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2026_core_pce_price_index_mom": 0.2, "april_2026_core_pce_price_index_yoy": 3.3, "april_2026_pce_price_index_mom": 0.4, "april_2026_pce_price_index_yoy": 3.8, "future_releases_at_creation": "May 2026 scheduled for 2026-06-25; June 2026 scheduled for 2026-07-30; July 2026 scheduled for 2026-08-26.", "release": "Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026", "release_date": "2026-05-28"}, "metric": "PCE price index percent change from June 2026 to July 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["May and June 2026 headline/core PCE inflation markets are prior-reference-month markets.", "July 2026 core PCE inflation excludes food and energy, while this market uses the headline/all-items PCE price index.", "July 2026 CPI-U, core CPI-U, PPI, import/export prices, and AHE markets are different statistical releases.", "Current-dollar PCE spending, real PCE, personal income, DPI, saving-rate, and outlays markets are not PCE price-index duplicates."], "release_schedule": "BEA release schedule lists Personal Income and Outlays, July 2026 for 2026-08-26 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for July 2026", "series": "Headline/all-items PCE price index", "threshold": "+0.3% month-over-month or higher"}.