Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 72.7%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJun 1, 23, 2:32 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 8:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?
Manifold MarketsWill an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028?
Manifold Markets1GW AI training run before 2027?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
See https://technomancers.ai/japan-goes-all-in-copyright-doesnt-apply-to-ai-training/ (which cites a Japanese-langauge source https://go2senkyo.com/seijika/122181/posts/685617 that I can't read).
- According to this, Japan won't enforce copyright protections on data used to train AI models.
- Will this change within the decade?
- Resolves YES if either:
- (1) Both of these:
- (a) A rights holder uses Japanese copyright law to prevent an AI model from being trained, used, or distributed
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Japan prevent AI training on copyrighted data before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 73% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Japan prevent AI training on copyrighted data before 2030? resolve?
- Will Japan prevent AI training on copyrighted data before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will Japan prevent AI training on copyrighted data before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: See https://technomancers.ai/japan-goes-all-in-copyright-doesnt-apply-to-ai-training/ (which cites a Japanese-langauge source https://go2senkyo.com/seijika/122181/posts/685617 that I can't read).