Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 84.3%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJun 10, 24, 9:57 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner predicts that the largest AI training clusters will consume 1GW of electricity in ~2026.
- This market resolves YES if a training run of a single AI model consumes 1GW+ of power sustained through most of the training run.
- This power cost includes overhead to run the data center, such as cooling.
- This is one of a series of markets on claims made in Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness report(s):
- @/Tossup/lasa-will-models-be-able-to-do-the
- @/Tossup/lasa-100b-ai-training-cluster-by-th