Current community forecast
No 89%
Forecasters
79
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Sep 1, 26, 3:57 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will OpenAI Astra solve a math problem Claude Opus 5 deems more important than the Jacobian Conjecture?
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PolymarketWhich company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of September?
PolymarketIf Fable 5.1 is listed on arena.ai on September 14th will it have a higher agent arena score than Fable 5?
Manifold MarketsWho will win gold medal at 2026 Indonesia National Math Olympiad?
Manifold MarketsAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Should be a top 10 math problem of its math subfield, so nothing crazy but several mathematicians care about it and have tried solving it.
- I have started a project to see how doable this is at scale, may drop it if it doesn’t go anywhere.
- Tips welcome.
- By ‘solve’ I don't have a too airtight definition, but it would definitely count if a Lean statement was proven without exploiting bugs in the lean kernel for example, as would an involved expert mathematician signing off on it.
- Edge cases like AIs all agreeing the solution is clearly correct, and nobody managing to find errors, would lead to the market staying closed pre-resolution to give the math community time to find errors, but I may ultimately count it without strong guarantees if it seems very likely to be correct.
- A problem still counts if it's a solve that shows the problem wasn't interesting after all, or similar cope
Open markets
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September? resolve?
- Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September? is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is Will I solve an unsolved math problem with AI in September? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Should be a top 10 math problem of its math subfield, so nothing crazy but several mathematicians care about it and have tried solving it.