Current implied probability
Google 85.2%-2.0ptLeader of 17 outcomes
Market quality
68 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$508.8
Liquidity
$13.8K
Medium liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
+8.5 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Aug 13, 26, 12:04 AM UTCOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of October?
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KalshiWhich company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of September?
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Manifold MarketsIf Fable 5.1 is listed on arena.ai on September 14th will it have a higher agent arena score than Fable 5?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
- Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
- Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time.
- If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard.
- If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”).