Current implied probability
OpenAI 91.5%-0.5ptLeader of 13 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
58 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$75.6
Liquidity
$16.7K
Medium liquiditySpread
3.2 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
+0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Jul 20, 26, 11:15 PM UTCOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Image Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Image Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Image Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-image (Overall) filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
- Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time.
- If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard.
- If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”).
- This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.