KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
OpenAI 90.3%Leader of 11 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$16.8K
Liquidity
$16.6K
Medium liquidityMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Sep 18, 26, 4:00 PM UTCSep 25, 26, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of November?
PolymarketWhich company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of September?
PolymarketWhich company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of October?
PolymarketOpen Weights text-to-image model with Elo ≥ 1200 on Artificial Analysis by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
If OpenAI is the #1 model on Artificial Analysis Text to Image Leaderboard on Sep 25, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Artificial Analysis - Image Arena
- Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them.
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- If Reve is the #1 model on Artificial Analysis Text to Image Leaderboard on Sep 25, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-8.5pt77%
- December 15,-20.5pt62%
- November 30,-26.5pt51%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $3.5M
- 24h Vol
- $201.8K
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+3.0pt90%
- Before Mar 1, 202786%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+2.0pt86%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt69.6%
- ChatGPT-0.1pt12.8%
- Gemini+2.1pt9.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.5M
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 23.6%+8.0pt99%
- Above 21.7%99%
- Above 22.7%99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $178.6K
- 24h Vol
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.5%+3.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 5.6%+44.0pt91%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $197.4K
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.55%+3.0pt99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.25%99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $231.8K
- 24h Vol
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic lab leak by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)
- Top Text to Speech AI this week
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- OpenRouter AI token usage: Sep 14–20
- Anthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Top Text to Image AI this week?
- Kalshi prices OpenAI at 90% as of September 19, 2026.
- When does Top Text to Image AI this week resolve?
- Top Text to Image AI this week is scheduled to resolve on September 25, 2026.
- How is Top Text to Image AI this week settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If OpenAI is the #1 model on Artificial Analysis Text to Image Leaderboard on Sep 25, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.