What are the current odds for Will I lose my virginity within the next 3 years??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 70.1% as of October 29, 2026.

How is Will I lose my virginity within the next 3 years? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The market resolves YES if I lose my virginity before the closing time.

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 70.1%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 4 hours ago

Stale

Jul 30, 24, 5:11 AM UTCJul 29, 27, 10:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

The market resolves YES if I lose my virginity before the closing time.

Otherwise, it resolved NO.
I will not trade in this market so I have no incentive to lie. 'Losing my virginity' is essentially sexual intimacy with another person(s).
I'll use my own judgement but will be somewhat lenient.
I'm willing to answer most questions in the comments as long as they aren't too personal, since I know this is quite a vague market without further details.
I've already answered several questions so I encourage you to scroll down before betting!