Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 97.5%
Forecasters
24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJan 11, 25, 9:41 PM UTCMay 31, 30, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
I’m a first year PhD student in Behavioral Marketing at UC Berkeley.
- This question resolves yes if+when I drop out, no if I finish my program (est.
- The main reason I would drop out is if something else seems clearly more impactful or interesting.
- Two things I could imagine fitting this description are working at an EA-aligned research org or doing more direct AI safety work.
- The main reason I wouldn’t drop out is that I’m getting a comfy stipend and have a ton of research flexibility.
- I’m currently running surveys on probabilistic reasoning and forecasting human-AI interaction.
Open markets
AIKALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.05%+3.0pt99%
- Above 2.25%-1.0pt97%
- Above 2.65%+32.0pt94%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $117.2K
- 24h Vol
- $95.2K
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
- Alibaba-5.0pt69%
- Moonshot-6.0pt14%
- Z.ai+2.3pt6%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+5.0pt85.4%
- Moonshot-1.9pt9.7%
- Z.ai1.9%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%+4.0pt96%
- Above 4.5%+22.0pt43%
- Above 5.6%+2.0pt13%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt87%
- December 15,+1.0pt84%
- November 30,+8.0pt81%
+7 more outcomes
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- DeepSeek market share this week
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- OpenAI market share this week
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- Best AI this week
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will I drop out of my PhD program??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 98% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does Will I drop out of my PhD program? resolve?
- Will I drop out of my PhD program? is scheduled to resolve on May 31, 2030.
- How is Will I drop out of my PhD program? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I’m a first year PhD student in Behavioral Marketing at UC Berkeley.