Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Later or never 28.6%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleFeb 16, 24, 5:46 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will I finish my stuff on time?
Manifold MarketsWill I drop out of my PhD program?
Manifold MarketsWill I get a tenure-track job offer straight out of my PhD?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiRules
I have been working on it since September 2020, have two publications and one manuscript ready to be published, plus some work-in-progress stuff, and have funding for all of 2024.
- I will use the defense date as the point at which it is "finished".
Open markets
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.7pt4%
- September 30-0.2pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $68.2M
- 24h Vol
- $124.4K
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt21%
- Before 2028+1.0pt13%
- Before 2027-0.2pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.9M
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 203580%
- Before 2030-9.1pt62%
- Before 2029-7.9pt17%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $311.2K
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1-2.0pt74.8%
- 2+0.5pt24.2%
- 3-0.1pt1%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes-2.2pt73%
- No27%
- Total Vol
- $348K
- 24h Vol
- $1.4K
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+7.0pt39%
- Above 1+4.0pt18%
- Above 2-2.0pt4%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
- AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?
- When will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved?
- When will nuclear fusion be achieved?
- When will Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer be resolved?
- US solar capacity installed in 2026
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What year will I finish my PhD??
- Manifold Markets prices Later or never at 29% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does What year will I finish my PhD? resolve?
- What year will I finish my PhD? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.
- How is What year will I finish my PhD? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I have been working on it since September 2020, have two publications and one manuscript ready to be published, plus some work-in-progress stuff, and have funding for all of 2024.