Will I be credibly accused of sexual assault or sexual harassment before 2028?
One-OffCrime & JusticeSociety & Culture1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 96.7%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleMar 22, 23, 4:35 AM UTCJan 1, 28, 8:00 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market works as follows:
- If any accusation is made, I'll try to link to any relevant evidence in the comments, and anyone else can also provide any evidence they believe to be relevant.
- After it doesn't seem like any more evidence is likely to be forthcoming, I will ask Manifold users to vote on whether they believe the accusation is credible.
- A certain voter believes the accusation is "credible", if, after looking at the evidence, they think there's at least a 50% chance that I did sexually assault or sexually harrass someone as described in the accusation.
- (Each voter should use whatever definition of "sexual assault" and "sexual harrassment" they believe to be most correct.)
- If it seems like one person may have created a bunch of accounts in order to manipulate the votes, I'll ask the Manifold admins to look into it.
