Current community forecast
No 92.7%
Forecasters
36
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleMar 7, 23, 8:49 AM UTCDec 31, 40, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Highest temperature in London on September 11?
PolymarketLowest temperature in London on September 11?
PolymarketPoland: Will CPI inflation in Poland exceed X% throughout 2026 (CPI YoY)?
Manifold MarketsWill the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?
PolymarketHow high will the US national average gas price get in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill unemployment rate in the US reach 10% between the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections?
Manifold MarketsRules
The price needs to be lower than a business-class flight today, £8k, inflation-adjusted.
- If the flight is driven by part fossil fuel and part electrical flight it does not count (except for reaching cruise altitude, see the comments' discussion in 2020 companion market).
- See the same question for 2040 below.
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/HenriThunberg/will-i-be-able-to-book-a-commercial)
