Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 80.6%
Forecasters
30
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleDec 19, 22, 10:14 AM UTCDec 31, 31, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Turkey be a member state of the EU on January 1st 2032?
Manifold MarketsWill Italy be a member state of the EU on January 1st 2032?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine be a member state of the EU at EOY 2031?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketWhat will Mark Carney say during his European Parliament address?
KalshiWill a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
EuropePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.9pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.3pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26M
- 24h Vol
- $728.7K
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.9pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- No+1.0pt84.2%
- Yes-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $967.7K
- 24h Vol
- $113.3K
POLYMARKETMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
- AfD+1.5pt79.2%
- SPD-1.5pt20.8%
- CDU0%
+5 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNext Prime Minister of Sweden
- Magdalena Andersson76.7%
- Ulf Kristersson+1.0pt21.4%
- Jimmie Åkesson-0.8pt1%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETECB Interest Rates: September 2026
- 25 bps increase-0.1pt100%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
- 25 bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Berlin State Election Winner
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Vote Share?
- AfD wins the most seats in how many September state elections?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: MP Vote Share?
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Hungary be a member state of the EU on January 1st 2032??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 81% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Hungary be a member state of the EU on January 1st 2032? resolve?
- Will Hungary be a member state of the EU on January 1st 2032? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2031.