Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 93.9%
No 93.9%Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 37 minutes ago
Apr 21, 23, 8:00 AM UTCJan 1, 00, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will humans be an endangered species by 2600?
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PolymarketRules
Essentially 'will humans go extinct by 2100' but with a few survivors being allowed.
- To quantify this, National Geographic says:
- "A species is classified as endangered when its population has declined at least 70 percent and the cause of the decline is known.
- A species is also classified as endangered when its population has declined at least 50 percent and the cause of the decline is not known." so I will allow a 50% decrease to resolve this as "yes" and will otherwise resolve this as "no"