Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (92.8%)
Resolved: Aug 10, 2026, 6:04 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastNo 92.8%
Forecasters
57
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 days ago
StaleAug 5, 26, 6:52 AMAug 10, 26, 3:59 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes7.2%
No92.8%
92.8%
7.2%
Rules
Resolves YES if, via any official announcement, Haley Stevens endorses AES for Senate by EOD Sunday.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- Update 2026-08-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): To resolve YES, Haley Stevens must explicitly use the word "endorse" (or direct variations).
- General statements of support (e.g., "looking forward to helping defeat Rogers") will not count as an endorsement.
- Update 2026-08-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): To resolve YES, Haley Stevens must explicitly use the word endorse (or direct variations such as endorsed or endorsement).
- General statements of preference (e.g., saying she wants his opponent to lose, or that she will support his campaign against another person) will not count.
Open markets
Politics
KALSHISouth Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?
- Darline Graham-8.0pt64.2%
- Ralph Norman+7.0pt27.5%
- Pamela Evette0.9%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $13.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.1M
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-0.3pt34.7%
- Édouard Philippe27.4%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon14.7%
+125 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.5%
- Gavin Newsom+2.0pt15.5%
+44 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $187.1M
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva63.4%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+0.2pt32.7%
- Renan Santos+0.1pt4%
+29 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance20%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt12%
+125 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $690.6M
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party-1.0pt85.7%
- Republican Party-1.0pt14.3%
- Total Vol
- $23.7M
- 24h Vol
- $585.9K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Haley Stevens endorse Abdul El-Sayed by Sunday??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 93% as of August 10, 2026.
- When does Will Haley Stevens endorse Abdul El-Sayed by Sunday? resolve?
- Will Haley Stevens endorse Abdul El-Sayed by Sunday? is scheduled to resolve on August 10, 2026.
- How is Will Haley Stevens endorse Abdul El-Sayed by Sunday? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if, via any official announcement, Haley Stevens endorses AES for Senate by EOD Sunday.