Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 78%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Jun 27, 26, 10:57 AM UTCDec 31, 99, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if at any point, Elon Musk's net worth is officially recorded at $1.5 trillion USD or higher by either of the following trackers:
- Forbes Real-Time Billionaires
- Bloomberg Billionaires Index
- If neither tracker reports Musk's net worth reaching or exceeding $1.5 trillion by Elon Musk's death, this market will resolve to NO.
- If one of the tracking indexes is permanently discontinued or becomes inaccessible, the remaining index will serve as the sole source of truth.