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Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 3:37 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
No 94.2%
Forecasters
24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleSep 25, 23, 12:20 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Elon Musk create a parent company to consolidate his various business interests (e.g., Tesla, SpaceX, etc.) by 2027
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk create a political party in the US by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Elon Musk create a market on Manifold before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich company will create AGI first?
Manifold MarketsWhat organization will be the first to create AGI?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
Resolves YES if by the creator's best judgement, a Elon-Musk-controlled company creates an AGI by 2030 before any other company.
- Tesla AI and xAI are the main AI labs to monitor, but any Elon-controlled company counts.
- Also resolves YES if a nonprofit or government program led by Musk creates the first AGI by 2030, or if Elon Musk personally develops the first AGI.
- Resolves NO if a non-Musk organization creates AGI first by 2030 or if AGI does not exist by 2030.
- Judgement on whether a model constitutes AGI will be at the discretion of the creator, who will take into account benchmark performance, expert opinion, and any other evidence deemed to be credible.
