Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85.2%
Forecasters
38
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleOct 14, 22, 4:08 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the WSJ, NYT, FT, or Economist create a market on Manifold by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk create a parent company to consolidate his various business interests (e.g., Tesla, SpaceX, etc.) by 2027
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk create a political party in the US by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Matt Levine create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
PolymarketRules
Oct 14, 5:08pm: Must be obviously him (no fake accounts pls). ie he reposts on his twitter or something
Open markets
Tech
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,250 or above99%
- $75,000 or above99%
- $76,500 or above98%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $636.3K
- 24h Vol
- $630.2K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 160-179+18.0pt37.1%
- 180-199+10.0pt36.2%
- 200-219-10.0pt12.4%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $68,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.4M
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+39.3pt96%
- 65-89-29.7pt4%
- <40-24.4pt0%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Before April 2027+3.0pt71.2%
- Before March 202717.1%
- Before February 2027-1.0pt6.3%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic89.9%
- OpenAI-1.5pt8.1%
- Google-0.1pt2%
+18 more outcomes
- Foldable iPhone Announced Price?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 9, 2026?
- Where will it rain on Sep 9, 2026?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Next James Bond actor?
- BNB price range on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Elon Musk create a market on Manifold before the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 85% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Elon Musk create a market on Manifold before the end of 2030? resolve?
- Will Elon Musk create a market on Manifold before the end of 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will Elon Musk create a market on Manifold before the end of 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Oct 14, 5:08pm: Must be obviously him (no fake accounts pls). ie he reposts on his twitter or something