Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 97.5%
Forecasters
70
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJan 7, 25, 3:26 PM UTCJan 21, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many Nobel Prize Medals will Donald Trump have at the end of his term?
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Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump issue Elon Musk a Presidential Pardon while he is in office
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KalshiWhat will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
KalshiWill Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations during Trump's term?
KalshiRules
Elon Musk plays fast and loose with the rules.
- He has a friend who does, too.
- Will one get bored of the other’s shenanigans? And where will that leave Musk?
Open markets
Crime & Justice
POLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+16.0pt72.3%
- Yes-16.0pt27.7%
- Total Vol
- $409.9K
- 24h Vol
- $10.3K
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Total Vol
- $11.4M
- 24h Vol
- $7.9K
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+0.5pt28%
- October 31+1.0pt14%
- September 30-1.0pt6%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-1.0pt21%
- 2026+0.1pt5%
- Total Vol
- $580.3K
- 24h Vol
- $5K
POLYMARKETMaduro Prison Time?
- No prison time+1.0pt42.6%
- 60++2.0pt38.6%
- 20–40+2.1pt10.9%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAndrew Tate released from custody by which date?
- December 31-8.0pt13%
- July 31-0.1pt0%
- August 31-0.6pt0%
- Who will be arrested in 2026?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Hasan Piker arrested in 2026?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Will Yale settle with DOJ over Law School admissions?
- Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?
- Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?
- Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Elon Musk be in prison by the end of Donald Trump’s term??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 98% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Elon Musk be in prison by the end of Donald Trump’s term? resolve?
- Will Elon Musk be in prison by the end of Donald Trump’s term? is scheduled to resolve on January 21, 2029.
- How is Will Elon Musk be in prison by the end of Donald Trump’s term? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Elon Musk plays fast and loose with the rules.