Will Elon Musk and Donald Trump appear together in the same new photo or video on X before October 1, 2026?
US PoliticsOne-OffManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (15.1%)
Resolved: Oct 1, 2026, 11:14 AM
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Data as of Oct 1, 2026, 6:05 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes15.1%
No84.9%
Lost
Won
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KalshiRules
YES if, after this market is created and before 2026-09-30 23:59:59 UTC, the official X account of Elon Musk (@elonmusk) or Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump or @POTUS if that account is Trump's at the time) posts a photo or video in which both men are visually identifiable in the same frame.
- A new original post (including a quote-tweet that itself contains the new photo/video).
- A video still or clip where both faces (or otherwise unmistakable likenesses) are visible together.
- Posted by one of the accounts above.
- A post by a third party, even if they are tagged, does not count.
- What does NOT count