Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 51.7%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJul 27, 26, 10:19 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsWhich countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
LimitlessRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Donald Trump makes a subsequent visit to mainland China, Hong Kong, or Macau on or after July 27, 2026, and before January 1, 2027 (12:00 AM UTC).
- Because Donald Trump already completed a state visit to Beijing on May 13–15, 2026, his past trip does not satisfy the resolution criteria.
- This market requires a new, separate visit during the specified timeframe.
- The market will resolve based on official statements from the White House or the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, or consensus reporting from major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, Bloomberg).
- A "visit" is defined as Trump physically landing and setting foot in the specified territory.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Donald Trump visit China before January 1, 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 52% as of September 21, 2026.
- When does Will Donald Trump visit China before January 1, 2027? resolve?
- Will Donald Trump visit China before January 1, 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Donald Trump visit China before January 1, 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria