Current community forecast
Yes 91.2%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleAug 3, 26, 3:14 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will DeepSeek release a proprietary model for sale before EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the first major multimodal DeepSeek release be video oriented and suited for robot control?
Manifold MarketsV4.1+ Pro (DeepSeek) release date
Manifold MarketsWill DeepSeek release V4.1-Pro (or a higher Pro tier) by October 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
PolymarketAI bubble burst by which date?
PolymarketRules
Preview models will count
- Other hosting providers (DeepInfra, for example) must be able to host the models themselves (the weights have to be available to download but vLLM or other engines don't have to support running it)
- If any model of the family (e.g. DeepSeek v5 mini or DeepSeek v5 Flash) is released, then it counts.
- The EST timezone will be used to decide if it releases before 2028 or not
- DeepSeek is an AI Lab based in China.
- It gained attention for training highly efficient open-weight models at a fraction of the cost compared to western labs like OpenAI or Anthropic.