Current community forecast
Yes 91.2%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleAug 3, 26, 3:14 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will DeepSeek release a proprietary model for sale before EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the first major multimodal DeepSeek release be video oriented and suited for robot control?
Manifold MarketsWill deepseek v5 release in september 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketTop Chinese AI Company week of September 7th
KalshiSecond-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketRules
Preview models will count
- Other hosting providers (DeepInfra, for example) must be able to host the models themselves (the weights have to be available to download but vLLM or other engines don't have to support running it)
- If any model of the family (e.g. DeepSeek v5 mini or DeepSeek v5 Flash) is released, then it counts.
- The EST timezone will be used to decide if it releases before 2028 or not
- DeepSeek is an AI Lab based in China.
- It gained attention for training highly efficient open-weight models at a fraction of the cost compared to western labs like OpenAI or Anthropic.
Open markets
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $110.1K
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $13.1M
- 24h Vol
- $41.2K
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 26°C-0.5pt50%
- 27°C+8.5pt27.4%
- 25°C-7.0pt15.7%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No-0.5pt72.3%
- Yes+0.5pt27.7%
- Total Vol
- $414.1K
- 24h Vol
- $15.5K
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+1.0pt89.1%
- Yes-1.0pt10.9%
- Total Vol
- $3.1M
- 24h Vol
- $13.8K
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+4.5pt71.3%
- Moonshot-3.2pt26.7%
- Z.ai-0.8pt1%
+8 more outcomes
- Will Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- Top Chinese AI Company week of September 14th
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
- How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
- Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?
- Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Beijing on September 10?
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will DeepSeek v5 release before 2028?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 91% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will DeepSeek v5 release before 2028 resolve?
- Will DeepSeek v5 release before 2028 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will DeepSeek v5 release before 2028 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Preview models will count