Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore February 2027 70.9%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleAug 31, 26, 2:57 PM UTCFeb 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will DeepSeek release a proprietary model for sale before EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the first major multimodal DeepSeek release be video oriented and suited for robot control?
Manifold MarketsWill DeepSeek v5 release before 2028
Manifold MarketsGrand Theft Auto VI: New trailer release date
KalshiPrison Break: New season release date
KalshiThe Winds of Winter: Release date announced this year?
KalshiRules
The '+' means any version at or above V4.1 counts: if DeepSeek skips V4.1 and releases V4.2 Pro or V5 Pro, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Only the Pro tier counts — a Flash release does not resolve this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called DeepSeek V4.1 Pro, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
Open markets
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for V4.1+ Pro (DeepSeek) release date?
- Manifold Markets prices Before February 2027 at 71% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does V4.1+ Pro (DeepSeek) release date resolve?
- V4.1+ Pro (DeepSeek) release date is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2027.
- How is V4.1+ Pro (DeepSeek) release date settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The '+' means any version at or above V4.1 counts: if DeepSeek skips V4.1 and releases V4.2 Pro or V5 Pro, that still counts for the purpose of this market.