Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore February 2027 90.2%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
13
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleAug 31, 26, 2:57 PM UTCFeb 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
The '+' means any version at or above V4.1 counts: if DeepSeek skips V4.1 and releases V4.2 Pro or V5 Pro, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Only the Pro tier counts — a Flash release does not resolve this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called DeepSeek V4.1 Pro, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
