Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 81.6%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleOct 1, 26, 2:56 PM UTCNov 1, 26, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if, between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Pacific, DeepSeek publicly releases DeepSeek-V4.1-Pro, or any higher Pro/flagship tier that replaces it (e.g. V4.2-Pro, V5, V5-Pro).
- What counts as released: anyone can use it without an invitation, through DeepSeek's API, its official chat app/website, or as publicly downloadable open weights.
- An open public preview or beta counts, the way the "DeepSeek-V4 Preview" (April 24) would have.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, anonymous arena appearances and leaks do not count.
- What does NOT count: Flash, Lite, Mini, vision-experimental or distilled models.
- DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash came out on Sept 10, 2026 and does not count, and neither does any later Flash-tier model.
