Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 50.3%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJun 18, 26, 6:10 PM UTCDec 10, 26, 12:25 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Consumer Price Index release for December 2026 reports that headline CPI-U rose 0.3% or more month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis.
- Use the all-items Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), BLS series CUSR0000SA0, and the seasonally adjusted percent change from November 2026 to December 2026 in the first BLS December 2026 CPI release.
- Resolve NO if that seasonally adjusted month-over-month change is 0.2% or lower.
- Do not use core CPI, year-over-year CPI, PCE, PPI, not-seasonally-adjusted monthly change, real earnings, or later annual revisions unless BLS corrects the initial December 2026 release before resolution.
- If the December 2026 CPI release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release of the December 2026 figure unless there is no BLS December 2026 CPI release by August 19, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"core_cpi_u_may_2026_mom_sa": 0.2, "headline_cpi_u_may_2026_mom_sa": 0.5, "headline_cpi_u_may_2026_yoy": 4.2, "note": "November 2026 CPI is scheduled for 2026-07-14 and had not yet been released at this market's creation time.", "release": "Consumer Price Index, May 2026"}, "metric": "Seasonally adjusted all-items CPI-U percent change from November 2026 to December 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["May 2026 CPI markets are prior-reference-month markets, not December 2026 duplicates.", "Core CPI, year-over-year CPI, PCE inflation, PPI, and real-earnings markets are not duplicates.", "Calendar-year inflation markets are not duplicates of a single-month headline CPI-U MoM threshold."], "release_schedule": "BLS CPI schedule lists November 2026 CPI for 2026-12-10 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS Consumer Price Index release for December 2026", "series": "CUSR0000SA0", "source_fetch_caveat": "Official BLS schedule pages were verified via web/search tooling before creation; BLS pages can return HTTP 403 or time out from raw Python requests on this host.", "threshold": "+0.3% month-over-month or higher"}.
- Sources / resolver surfaces: - BLS CPI release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm - BLS August 2026 schedule list: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/12_sched_list.htm - BLS current CPI release page: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm - BLS CPI home: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
