Will cold showers be shown to be an effective treatment for depression by 2030
One-OffHealth & MedicineScience2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 9:13 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 82%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleMar 25, 24, 4:33 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
General health benefits from cold showers, accepted by 2040?
Manifold MarketsBumetanide considered effective in the treatment of genetic Alzheimer's by the end of 2026?
FutuurHow many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
KalshiWhen will Beam Therapeutics submit a BLA for Risto-cel?
KalshiHow many tuberculosis cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
KalshiWill WHO classify the current hantavirus outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves positively if, by my estimation, there is convincing evidence that cold showers are an effective treatment for depression by 2030.
- There is currently some evidence- theoretical and empirical- for an effect, but there is a paucity of large studies specifically on the effect of showers on depression.
- I will consider the effect of cold showers demonstrated if there are at least two peer-reviewed experimental studies random allocation to conditions showing a statistically significant (or Bayesian equivalent) effect on depression which is, in my view, large enough to be clinically significant.
- Especially given the low cost of the treatment, the bar to being considered clinically significant is not especially high- for example, if 30% of participants fell below the cutoff for depression in the treatment condition, and only 20% in the control condition, I would consider that clinically significant.
- Although multiple controlled studies in a peer-reviewed journal are the most likely route to a positive resolution, I might accept other evidence at my discretion- for example, a single study large and rigorous enough that I consider it decisive on its own.
- I will not bet in this market.
