Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 55.8%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleApr 8, 26, 2:20 PM UTCJun 30, 27, 4:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if China April 2027 Sm2O3 export volume exceeds 50 tonnes.
- What is being measured: China monthly Sm2O3 export volume (GACC data) for the month ending April 2027, settled 2 months later to allow for GACC reporting lag.
- YES if: China Sm2O3 monthly export volume >= 50 tonnes for April 2027 NO if: Export volume below 50 tonnes
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- GACC (General Administration of Customs, China) monthly trade data — HS 2846.90
- Asian Metal — China rare earth export monthly tracker (asianmetal.com)
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will China April 2027 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 50 tonnes??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 56% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will China April 2027 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 50 tonnes? resolve?
- Will China April 2027 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 50 tonnes? is scheduled to resolve on June 30, 2027.
- How is Will China April 2027 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 50 tonnes? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if China April 2027 Sm2O3 export volume exceeds 50 tonnes.