Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 56.9%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleApr 8, 26, 2:20 PM UTCSep 30, 27, 4:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China July 2027 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 20 tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill China July 2027 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 50 tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill China August 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 20 tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill China January 2027 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 50 tonnes?
Manifold MarketsXi Jinping out before 2027?
PolymarketTaipei Mayor Election Winner
PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if China July 2027 Sm2O3 export volume exceeds 80 tonnes.
- What is being measured: China monthly Sm2O3 export volume (GACC data) for the month ending July 2027, settled 2 months later to allow for GACC reporting lag.
- YES if: China Sm2O3 monthly export volume >= 80 tonnes for July 2027 NO if: Export volume below 80 tonnes
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- GACC (General Administration of Customs, China) monthly trade data — HS 2846.90
- Asian Metal — China rare earth export monthly tracker (asianmetal.com)