Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 30, 2026, 3:24 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 55.8%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated yesterday
StaleApr 8, 26, 2:20 PM UTCJun 30, 27, 4:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if China April 2027 Sm2O3 export volume exceeds 20 tonnes.
- What is being measured: China monthly Sm2O3 export volume (GACC data) for the month ending April 2027, settled 2 months later to allow for GACC reporting lag.
- YES if: China Sm2O3 monthly export volume >= 20 tonnes for April 2027 NO if: Export volume below 20 tonnes
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- GACC (General Administration of Customs, China) monthly trade data — HS 2846.90
- Asian Metal — China rare earth export monthly tracker (asianmetal.com)