Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 56.9%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Apr 8, 26, 2:19 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if China October 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceeds 80 tonnes.
- What is being measured: China monthly Sm2O3 export volume (GACC data) for the month ending October 2026, settled 2 months later to allow for GACC reporting lag.
- YES if: China Sm2O3 monthly export volume >= 80 tonnes for October 2026 NO if: Export volume below 80 tonnes
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- GACC (General Administration of Customs, China) monthly trade data — HS 2846.90
- Asian Metal — China rare earth export monthly tracker (asianmetal.com)