Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 56.9%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleApr 8, 26, 2:19 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China October 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 80 tonnes?
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PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if China October 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceeds 50 tonnes.
- What is being measured: China monthly Sm2O3 export volume (GACC data) for the month ending October 2026, settled 2 months later to allow for GACC reporting lag.
- YES if: China Sm2O3 monthly export volume >= 50 tonnes for October 2026 NO if: Export volume below 50 tonnes
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- GACC (General Administration of Customs, China) monthly trade data — HS 2846.90
- Asian Metal — China rare earth export monthly tracker (asianmetal.com)
Open markets
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- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $116.3K
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- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
- $45K
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- 26°C+11.5pt52.4%
- 27°C+1.0pt22.9%
- 25°C-3.0pt16.2%
+8 more outcomes
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- No72.3%
- Yes27.7%
- Total Vol
- $414.1K
- 24h Vol
- $15.6K
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- No+1.0pt89.1%
- Yes-1.0pt10.9%
- Total Vol
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- September 30+0.5pt95%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will China October 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 50 tonnes??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 57% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will China October 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 50 tonnes? resolve?
- Will China October 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 50 tonnes? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will China October 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 50 tonnes? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if China October 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceeds 50 tonnes.