Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 61.5%
Forecasters
42
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 42 minutes ago
Sep 11, 25, 12:04 AM UTCSep 11, 35, 12:04 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Update 2025-09-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If Tyler Robinson is not the killer, the market will wait until the actual killer is identified.
- Dying in prison is not receiving the death penalty.
- Update 2025-09-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Requires actual execution: Resolves YES only if the killer is put to death via capital punishment (e.g., firing squad, lethal injection).
- A death sentence without execution does not count.
