Will Avital Balwit be employed in 2030, after writing about her last 5 years of work?
EconomyOne-OffSociety & Culture4yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 81.3%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleMay 20, 24, 12:23 PM UTCDec 25, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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She wrote this article: https://www.palladiummag.com/2024/05/17/my-last-five-years-of-work/.
- She actually speculates she might only work for 3 more years.
- Resolves to YES if Avital Balwit has gainful or plausibly impactful employment, including self-employment but excluding household work and raising children, during the year 2030, constituting an average of at least 20 hours/week of work over some 6 month period.
- Domestic work such as child care does not count towards this.
- Resolves to NO if Avital Balwit does not have such gainful or plausibly impactful employment to this extent, for any reason.
- Resolves to 50% if we have no idea what she is up to.
Open markets
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- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.3pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $105.9M
- 24h Vol
- $1.9M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $663.1K
- 24h Vol
- $55.3K
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- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $418.1K
- 24h Vol
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- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt94%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-6.0pt90%
- Above -4.5% of GDP80%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $19.1K
KALSHIGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.0% of GDP-4.0pt93%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-10.0pt84%
- Above -4.0% of GDP+1.0pt51%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- No78%
- Yes-3.0pt22%
- Total Vol
- $366.1K
- 24h Vol
- $11K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Avital Balwit be employed in 2030, after writing about her last 5 years of work??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 81% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Avital Balwit be employed in 2030, after writing about her last 5 years of work? resolve?
- Will Avital Balwit be employed in 2030, after writing about her last 5 years of work? is scheduled to resolve on December 25, 2030.
- How is Will Avital Balwit be employed in 2030, after writing about her last 5 years of work? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: She wrote this article: https://www.palladiummag.com/2024/05/17/my-last-five-years-of-work/.