Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.3%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleApr 15, 26, 4:10 AM UTCDec 31, 40, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Nectome perform 1,000+ brain preservations in a single calendar year before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Nectome preserve at least 100 humans by the end of 2030?
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KalshiRules
Nectome is a brain preservation startup, founded by Aurelia Song circa 2015.
- This market resolves YES iff, before 2041, Aurelia Song leaves the company for any reasons other than:
- Health issues that prevent her from working a full-time job
- Being unilaterally pushed out by other stakeholders
- Aldehyde-stabilization is clearly demonstrated to not work and/or not be necessary (eg because of a positive singularity)
- If Nectome ceases to exist for mundane reasons, I will consider it abandonment if she doesn't act to try and do what's best for any people they really preserved, or if she decides to change careers in the aftermath.
Open markets
Health & Medicine
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.2pt97%
- Yes+0.2pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.1M
- 24h Vol
- $23.7K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+0.6pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $9.3K
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt65%
- September41%
- June28%
- Total Vol
- $97.8K
POLYMARKETEbola pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Total Vol
- $759.2K
- 24h Vol
- $4K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000-3.0pt59%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- $3.5K
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+1.0pt94.1%
- Yes-1.0pt5.9%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5K
- When will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z?
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (in 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Aurelia Song abandon Nectome before 2041??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 91% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Aurelia Song abandon Nectome before 2041? resolve?
- Will Aurelia Song abandon Nectome before 2041? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2040.
- How is Will Aurelia Song abandon Nectome before 2041? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Nectome is a brain preservation startup, founded by Aurelia Song circa 2015.