Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 6:30 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 97.9%
Forecasters
53
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleOct 1, 24, 4:04 PM UTCJan 2, 40, 4:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?
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KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketRules
The Millennium Prize Problems are seven legendary open questions in mathematics announced by the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) in year 2000, each carrying a US $1 million reward for the first correct solution.
- Grigori Perelman’s 2003 proof of the Poincaré Conjecture settled one of them, leaving six unsolved challenges:
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture
- Hodge Conjecture
- Navier–Stokes Existence and Smoothness
- Riemann Hypothesis