Current community forecast
Yes 97%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleAug 3, 25, 6:27 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 8:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]
Manifold MarketsWill any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?
Manifold MarketsWill an "AI chip export licencing" bill like the AI OVERWATCH act become law in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
PolymarketWill Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?
PolymarketWill Apple release a new product line before 2027?
PolymarketRules
Will Apple release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026?
- Apple is expected to launch the A20 chip in 2026, possibly with advanced AI capabilities (Neural Engine, 2nm process, etc.).
- This market resolves YES if Apple officially announces or releases an iPhone in 2026 with a chip clearly positioned as AI-focused.
- Otherwise, resolves NO.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+15.5pt86%
- 2026+46.5pt74%
- September 30, 2026+34.0pt48%
- Total Vol
- $133K
- 24h Vol
- $71.9K
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture+14.0pt42.9%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer+8.0pt26.7%
- No solution by Dec 31, 2027-17.0pt13.3%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+24.0pt92%
- 2026+43.5pt73%
- September 30, 2026+26.0pt38%
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+9.3pt64.1%
- ChatGPT-4.1pt19.4%
- Gemini-0.1pt6.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.7M
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.25%+1.0pt96%
- Above 2.45%+29.0pt85%
- Above 2.6%+48.0pt68%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+5.5pt75%
- Moonshot-6.7pt20%
- Z.ai+0.1pt3%
+8 more outcomes
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Tencent market share this week
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Best AI this week
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Apple release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 97% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will Apple release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026? resolve?
- Will Apple release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is Will Apple release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will Apple release an AI chip for iPhones in 2026?