Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?
RegulationAIWeeklyChinaTech3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 81.9%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleMay 4, 26, 8:22 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-12-31, any China-domestic AI accelerator (Huawei Ascend, Cambricon, Biren, Moore Threads, Iluvatar, etc.) is reported to achieve ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 effective performance on a publicly disclosed benchmark.
- Acceptable benchmarks for resolution:
- MLPerf (mlperf.org) — official submitted results
- LLM training/inference benchmarks published by Epoch AI, CSET, or peer-reviewed academic papers (arXiv, conference proceedings)
- Vendor-published technical specifications + neutral third-party verification (e.g., research lab reproducing the result)
- "Effective performance" means application-level throughput on standardized AI workloads (e.g., GPT-class training tokens/sec, Llama-class inference tokens/sec, ResNet-class images/sec), not just raw FLOP/s peak.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 82% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31? resolve?
- Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-12-31, any China-domestic AI accelerator (Huawei Ascend, Cambricon, Biren, Moore Threads, Iluvatar, etc.) is reported to achieve ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 effective performance on a publicly disclosed benchmark.