Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?
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Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 81.9%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 21 hours ago
StaleMay 4, 26, 8:22 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-12-31, any China-domestic AI accelerator (Huawei Ascend, Cambricon, Biren, Moore Threads, Iluvatar, etc.) is reported to achieve ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 effective performance on a publicly disclosed benchmark.
- Acceptable benchmarks for resolution:
- MLPerf (mlperf.org) — official submitted results
- LLM training/inference benchmarks published by Epoch AI, CSET, or peer-reviewed academic papers (arXiv, conference proceedings)
- Vendor-published technical specifications + neutral third-party verification (e.g., research lab reproducing the result)
- "Effective performance" means application-level throughput on standardized AI workloads (e.g., GPT-class training tokens/sec, Llama-class inference tokens/sec, ResNet-class images/sec), not just raw FLOP/s peak.
