Will any CSTO member state successfully invoke Article 4 in 2026?
One-OffRussia / UkraineGeopolitics2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 6:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 72.8%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJun 26, 26, 1:08 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 8:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will any new country trigger the process to become a CSTO member in 2026?
FutuurWill Emmanuel Macron invoke Article 16 before the end of his mandate?
Manifold MarketsWill any other NATO member country invoke Article 4 by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Armenia withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Iceland remain a Non-EU member state by the year 2027?
Manifold MarketsAnother NATO article 4 by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve YES if, at any time before the close date, a party to the Collective Security Treaty formally invokes Article 4 of the treaty and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, or at least one of its member states, acts upon the request.
- This market will otherwise resolve NO at the close date.
- This market is set to close at 21:00 UTC on 31 December 2026.