Will Anthropic release a new frontier model before their IPO?
Corporate ActionsOne-OffAITechBusiness & Corporate1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 69.9%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Sep 5, 26, 2:26 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolves yes if Anthropic releases a new model to the public that is billed as more capable uniformly than Fable 5.1 before their IPO.
- A model is considered released if it's available via the API, Claude Code, the Claude app, or any other public location.
- The market resolves no otherwise.
- If Anthropic doesn't IPO by the end of 2027, and this market hasn't resolved yes yet, resolves N/A. I may trade on this market.
Open markets
Corporate ActionsPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-0.5pt85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $98.9K
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $214.9K
- 24h Vol
- $48.6K
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before Apr 1, 2027+1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.1pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.3pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael Election: Zionist Home & Yashar Run on Same List?
- Yes+49.5pt99%
- No-49.5pt1%
- Total Vol
- $24.7K
- 24h Vol
- $23.6K
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
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- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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- Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Anthropic release a new frontier model before their IPO??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 70% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Anthropic release a new frontier model before their IPO? resolve?
- Will Anthropic release a new frontier model before their IPO? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will Anthropic release a new frontier model before their IPO? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves yes if Anthropic releases a new model to the public that is billed as more capable uniformly than Fable 5.1 before their IPO.