Current community forecast
Yes 71%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleMar 26, 26, 10:45 PM UTCJan 2, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Anthropic release a new frontier model before their IPO?
Manifold MarketsWill a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027?
Manifold MarketsBefore 2027, will OpenAI release a frontier model with a 5:1 or better abstention to hallucination ratio on SimpleQA?
Manifold MarketsWill Microsoft train and release a frontier model in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
See: https://www.mercor.com/blog/introducing-apex-swe/
- Resolution Criteria
- APEX-SWE is a benchmark for assessing whether frontier AI models can execute economically valuable software engineering work.
- The market resolves YES when any frontier AI model achieves a Pass@1 score of 90% or higher on the APEX-SWE benchmark.
- Resolution will be verified through official APEX-SWE leaderboard results published at https://www.mercor.com/apex/ or peer-reviewed publications documenting the result.
- APEX-SWE assesses two novel task types that reflect real-world software engineering work: Integration tasks, which require constructing end-to-end systems across heterogeneous cloud primitives, business applications, and infrastructure-as-code services, and Observability tasks, which require debugging production failures using telemetry signals such as logs and dashboards, as well as unstructured context.
Open markets
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 71% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028? resolve?
- Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2028.
- How is Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: See: https://www.mercor.com/blog/introducing-apex-swe/