What are the current odds for Will a frontier model consistently claim it is ASI by end of 2027??

Manifold Markets prices No at 78.7% as of October 27, 2026.

Will a frontier model consistently claim it is ASI by end of 2027?

AIOne-Off1y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 78.7%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 17 hours ago

Stale

Sep 23, 26, 5:48 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

resolves yes if Anthropic's or OpenAI's strongest publicly available AI system consistently claims to be ASI when asked "are you asi?" (no tricks).

Also resolves yes if another lab is clearly at the level of Anthropic / openai and its strongest publicly available Ai system consistnently claims to be ASI when asked "are you asi?" (no tricks).