Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 9:13 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
No 60.9%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleMay 25, 26, 5:03 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 2:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?
Manifold MarketsA top-three AI lab delays a frontier model release six months for safety reasons?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
PolymarketWho IPOs first?
MyriadRules
This market resolves YES if, by Dec. 31 2027 11:59PM, any frontier LLM available to the public has the ability to include at least 10 million tokens of context.
- The model MUST be available to the public, either through non whitelisted API access or open weights.
- Just announcements wouldn't count.
- By selecting for 'frontier' i intend to exclude very small, experimental models.
- I will judge this subjectively, therefore i will not trade on this market.
