Current community forecast
No 60.9%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleMay 25, 26, 5:03 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 2:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Anthropic release a new frontier model before their IPO?
Manifold MarketsWill a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?
Manifold MarketsLargest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho IPOs first?
MyriadWill Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
PolymarketWho IPOs first?
MyriadRules
This market resolves YES if, by Dec. 31 2027 11:59PM, any frontier LLM available to the public has the ability to include at least 10 million tokens of context.
- The model MUST be available to the public, either through non whitelisted API access or open weights.
- Just announcements wouldn't count.
- By selecting for 'frontier' i intend to exclude very small, experimental models.
- I will judge this subjectively, therefore i will not trade on this market.
Open markets
Crypto
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.9pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+32.5pt87%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWhat price will Bitcoin hit in September?
- ↑ 80,000+31.4pt100%
- ↓ 77,500100%
- ↑ 77,500100%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 9?
- 68,000+0.1pt100%
- 70,000+0.4pt100%
- 72,000+0.6pt100%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- ↓ 60,000+10.4pt100%
- ↑ 80,000+11.9pt100%
- ↑ 75,000+30.4pt100%
+43 more outcomes
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- BTC 15 min · $78,497.72 target
- What price will Bitcoin hit September 7-13?
- What price will Bitcoin hit on September 8?
- What price will Ethereum hit in September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Ethereum above ___ on September 9?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 61% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028? resolve?
- Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if, by Dec. 31 2027 11:59PM, any frontier LLM available to the public has the ability to include at least 10 million tokens of context.