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Current community forecast
No 81.9%
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8
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 6 hours ago
StaleMay 19, 25, 12:23 PM UTCJan 31, 28, 12:20 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Hinge #5 bet proposed in this post: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/45oxYwysFiqwfKCcN/untitled-draft-keg3
- At least one top‑three lab publicly delays a frontier model six or more months for safety reasons.
- The other bets:
- #1: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/nvidias-datacenter-revenue-and-bigt
- #2: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/ai-model-training-time-decreases-fo
- #3: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/revenue-per-deployed-h100-exceeds-1