Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 21, 2026, 10:21 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast❌ NO — No AI-generated song reaches #1 during 2026. 94.4%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
7
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleAug 3, 25, 6:30 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 4:41 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will an AI-generated song reach #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?
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KalshiTop 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Oct 31, 2026?
KalshiRules
Resolves YES if a song primarily created using AI (e.g. lyrics, vocals, melody, or composition) reaches #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 at any time during 2026.
- The AI must have played a core creative role.
- Human involvement is allowed (e.g. mixing, mastering, or marketing).
- The song must be publicly acknowledged as AI-generated by the artist, label, or reliable media.
- Covers or remixes of non-AI songs do not count.
- Resolves NO if no such song reaches #1 by December 31, 2026.
