Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 57.6%
Forecasters
33
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJun 24, 24, 10:43 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
The AI company with the smartest AI system by the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsIf at least one AI system causes more than 100 deaths in the next 12 months, who would be behind it?
Manifold MarketsWill the European Commission's AI Office issue a formal notice of non-compliance to a provider of a "High-Risk AI System" on or before December 31, 2026?
ForecastExConditional on at least one AI system causing more than 100 deaths in the next 12 months, what's the type of attack?
Manifold MarketsWhen will an AI system autonomously build and operate a production software platform serving 1,000+ active users?
Manifold MarketsWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsRules
This question resolves YES if an AI system is known (because of good evidence) to have autonomously taken concrete steps to resist being shut down in the real world before the end of 2026.
- Otherwise resolves NO on 1 Jan 2027.
- I will resolve this question using my best judgement.
- Resolves using the same considerations as the 2024 version of this question found here:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/cash/will-an-ai-system-be-known-to-have-vb89s8zaok)Credit to @PeterWildeford for coming up with this question originally.
- See also the 2025 version:
