Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 72.9%
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Updated 5 hours ago
StaleAug 26, 25, 8:35 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
2027 version of https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t-a3b3eb99c337
- In line with progress in AI Minecraft (https://voyager.minedojo.org/), will there be a public announcement of a fully autonomous AI system which can defeat the Ender Dragon before Jan 1, 2027? To establish an objective baseline of competence and consistency in achieving this task, I'll stipulate that such a system must beat the Ender Dragon in less than 150 minutes of in-game time (deaths allowed) in at least 1% of runs.
- Systems which are pretrained on human data are allowed.
- The system must only use observational data that includes what a human player would be able to see while playing the game (including the debug screen), like the Minedojo simulator.
- Systems which have active access to external reference information (like a Wiki) are fine, as long as it does not include additional information on the specific world that the agent is playing in.
- 2026 Version: https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t-CPpOcyROzc 2028 Version: https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t-Ls5ugPg6yU 2029 Version: https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t-OzAACndlZA