Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 78%
Yes 78%Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 4 hours ago
StaleMay 26, 23, 9:18 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 8:00 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
[SPRING](https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.15486) uses GPT-4 to play a simple Minecraft-like game.
- By 2028 will an LLM in this setup or a similar setup beat the Ender Dragon in Minecraft?
- (Note that I'm not going to count something like [Voyager](https://voyager.minedojo.org/), because it seems to me like they're making the problem too easy.
- I'll make a separate market for that)